diff --git a/ClockReceiver/VSyncPredictor.hpp b/ClockReceiver/VSyncPredictor.hpp
index f446357bc..f133762c1 100644
--- a/ClockReceiver/VSyncPredictor.hpp
+++ b/ClockReceiver/VSyncPredictor.hpp
@@ -10,6 +10,7 @@
 #define VSyncPredictor_hpp
 
 #include "TimeTypes.hpp"
+#include <cmath>
 
 namespace Time {
 
@@ -25,19 +26,13 @@ class VSyncPredictor {
 		}
 
 		void end_redraw() {
-			const auto redraw_length = nanos_now() - redraw_begin_time_;
-			redraw_period_ =
-				((redraw_period_ * 9) +
-				((redraw_length) * 1)) / 10;
+			redraw_period_.post(nanos_now() - redraw_begin_time_);
 		}
 
 		void announce_vsync() {
 			const auto vsync_time = nanos_now();
 			if(last_vsync_) {
-				// Use an IIR to try to converge on frame times.
-				vsync_period_ =
-					((vsync_period_ * 9) +
-					((vsync_time - last_vsync_) * 1)) / 10;
+				vsync_period_.post(vsync_time - last_vsync_);
 			}
 			last_vsync_ = vsync_time;
 		}
@@ -47,19 +42,58 @@ class VSyncPredictor {
 		}
 
 		Nanos suggested_draw_time() {
-			// TODO: this is a very simple version of how this calculation
-			// should be made. It's tracking the average amount of time these
-			// things take, therefore will often be wrong. Deviations need to
-			// be accounted for.
-			return last_vsync_ + vsync_period_ - redraw_period_;
+			const auto mean = (vsync_period_.mean() - redraw_period_.mean()) / 1;
+			const auto variance = (vsync_period_.variance() + redraw_period_.variance()) / 1;
+
+			// Permit three standard deviations from the mean, to cover 99.9% of cases.
+			const auto period = mean + Nanos(3.0f * sqrt(float(variance)));
+
+			return last_vsync_ + period;
 		}
 
 	private:
+		class VarianceCollector {
+			public:
+				VarianceCollector(Time::Nanos default_value) {
+					sum_ = default_value * 128;
+					for(int c = 0; c < 128; ++c) {
+						history_[c] = default_value;
+					}
+				}
+
+				void post(Time::Nanos value) {
+					sum_ -= history_[write_pointer_];
+					sum_ += value;
+					history_[write_pointer_] = value;
+					write_pointer_ = (write_pointer_ + 1) & 127;
+				}
+
+				Time::Nanos mean() {
+					return sum_ / 128;
+				}
+
+				Time::Nanos variance() {
+					// I haven't yet come up with a better solution that calculating this
+					// in whole every time, given the way that the mean mutates.
+					Time::Nanos variance = 0;
+					for(int c = 0; c < 128; ++c) {
+						const auto difference = (history_[c] * 128) - sum_;
+						variance += difference * difference;
+					}
+					return variance / (128 * 128 * 128);
+				}
+
+			private:
+				Time::Nanos sum_;
+				Time::Nanos history_[128];
+				size_t write_pointer_ = 0;
+		};
+
 		Nanos redraw_begin_time_ = 0;
 		Nanos last_vsync_ = 0;
 
-		Nanos vsync_period_ = 1'000'000'000 / 60;	// Seems like a good first guess.
-		Nanos redraw_period_ = 0;
+		VarianceCollector vsync_period_{1'000'000'000 / 60};	// 60Hz: seems like a good first guess.
+		VarianceCollector redraw_period_{1'000'000'000 / 60};	// A less convincing first guess.
 };
 
 }
diff --git a/OSBindings/Qt/scantargetwidget.cpp b/OSBindings/Qt/scantargetwidget.cpp
index 0a2db83b9..5d5ebc1b1 100644
--- a/OSBindings/Qt/scantargetwidget.cpp
+++ b/OSBindings/Qt/scantargetwidget.cpp
@@ -49,6 +49,7 @@ void ScanTargetWidget::paintGL() {
 		vsyncPredictor.begin_redraw();
 		scanTarget->update(width(), height());
 		scanTarget->draw(width(), height());
+		glFinish();	// Make sure all costs are properly accounted for in the vsync predictor.
 		vsyncPredictor.end_redraw();
 	}
 }